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[Prospects for 2018 Credit Risk]
Release date:[2018-2-23] Is reading[135]次

Demand for domestic sales continued to improve, exports will keep warming, but the competition from ASEAN and other countries is still relatively large. The reduction of domestic cotton inventories will push cotton prices steadily up and the international cotton prices will face downward pressure. Policies tighter environmental policy, the industry will continue to accelerate the process to capacity. Profitability The overall profitability of the textile and garment industry will remain stable, the performance of the industry leading enterprises will continue to improve, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. The debt maturity structure of debt-bearing industries is more reasonable. Compared with other industries, the industry spread will remain at a relatively high level and the high-level spreads will narrow. Credit quality The overall credit level of the textile and apparel industries will remain stable, but the industry is clearly differentiated. Individual enterprises are facing greater credit risk.

 

Summary


Since 2017, the market demand in the textile and clothing industry has started to recover. The domestic market has shown a good trend. The export has picked up initially and the overall profitability of the industry has been raised. However, at the same time, problems such as overcapacity of textile enterprises and going to inventory of apparel enterprises still exist and the industry will enter a period of deep adjustment. In addition, the maturities of the existing bonds issued by the issuers of the textile and garment enterprises are more reasonable. Due to the deleveraging policy, the asset-liability ratio has declined and the debt structure has been somewhat improved.


In 2018, China's low-cost competitive advantage will gradually lose its competitive pressure from ASEAN and other countries. The degree of export recovery and the degree of sustainability will still face greater challenges. Domestic cotton prices will remain stable in the short term, but will further promote as inventory decreases Cotton prices steady rise, the international cotton prices are facing downward pressure, but the basic balance between supply and demand, the price fell space is limited. At the same time, the environmental protection policy is getting tighter day by day, the industry will speed up the process of capacity reduction and the industry concentration will be further enhanced. There is not much motivation for manufacturers to expand their scale. Most enterprises issue bonds mostly as "new ones," and interest rates continue to rise. The size of the bond market is expected to contract slightly. However, compared with other industries, the spread between the textile and garment industries is still relatively low High level. The overall profitability of the industry will remain stable and the capital structure will be improved. However, the differentiation within the industry will be more pronounced. A few products will have a single structure, weak profitability of core business, weak cost control capability and debt-under-pressured enterprises will face greater credit risk .


The domestic domestic market will continue to trend well; the export will maintain a warming trend, but the competitive pressure from ASEAN and other countries will increase, and the export of the industry will still face a greater test.


China is a big country for textile and apparel production and export. From the demand perspective, the proportion of domestic sales of China's textile industry is high, while the downstream garment industry accounts for about 50% of the total output. Asia, Europe and North America are the three most important Export market.


From the perspective of domestic sales, the industry is greatly influenced by consumers' preference and spending power. Since the beginning of 2017, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the country has maintained a growth of more than 10% each month. From January to October, among the units of goods above designated size, Retail sales of hats and knitwear amounted to 1,188.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the same period of the previous year. The industry as a whole enjoyed a booming economy. Since the second half of 2017, the retail sales of apparel products by retail enterprises above the designated size have maintained a good trend, especially in mid- to high-end menswear, high-end women's fashion, home textile and children's wear. With per capita disposable income continues to rise, the rapid growth of designer brands, cost-effective products sought after by the market, textile consumer spending will continue to increase in 2018 is expected to continue the trend of domestic sales will be good.


From the export point of view, China's textile and apparel exports have ended the continuous negative growth for 22 consecutive months since March 2017, of which the export of textiles has seen a significant increase. From January to November 2017, the total exports of textile and apparel amounted to US $ 243.26 billion, In RMB terms increased by 5.01%. Judging from the market structure, the traditional market competition in the United States, Japan and Europe is still fierce. It is estimated that in 2018, China's share in the import market of the three major textile and apparel products from the United States, Japan and the EU will still show a declining trend. The major competitors such as ASEAN and Bangladesh are gradually gaining advantages in terms of raw material prices and production land prices, and their market shares Will be further enhanced. Developed countries speed up the return of the textile industry, supply capacity continued to improve, Southeast Asian emerging countries to accelerate the textile industry layout, the cost advantage is significant, the textile industry in China to maintain a stable competitive power put forward higher requirements.


The reduction of domestic cotton inventories will push the price of cotton to rise steadily. The international cotton price will face the downward pressure, but the downside will be limited


The textile industry can be divided into cotton, chemical fiber textile, wool textile, hemp textile, silk textile and textile manufacturing (ie garment industry) according to the different raw materials. Among them, the consumption of raw material cotton and chemical fiber is more, the fluctuation of the price of cotton and chemical fiber Significant impact on the cost of the textile industry.


Since 2017, the supply of cotton resources in the international market has seriously exceeded the demand. There is still a gap in cotton market in the domestic market. The high price of cotton has stabilized and has created the characteristic of "tight internal and external tightness." 2018 is the deepening year for structural reforms in the supply side of the cotton industry. It is expected that the reserve cotton will still be rolled out on schedule and the domestic stock will be further reduced to a low level. The domestic cotton prices will continue to rise steadily. Internationally, some cotton-growing countries have increased their planting area. Under the downward pressure on the international cotton price in 2018, the cotton cultivation will be greatly affected by the weather. At the same time, if the domestic cotton import volume is increased, there will be only limited space for cotton to fall.


Development and Reform Commission announced in 2018 China's import tariff quota of cotton was 894,000 tons, unchanged from 2017. It is estimated that by 2018, the quota policy of the country will remain stable and the adjustment is unlikely. However, due to the small quantity of high-grade reserve cotton in China's stock and the insufficient domestic output to meet the demand, the gap between supply and demand will be widened. In the future, the quota for imported cotton will be expanded the amount. As there is a certain gap between the price and the quality of imported and domestic cotton, the market competitiveness and profitability of the textile enterprises will still largely depend on the availability of quotas and quotas. In the short term, the enterprises will still be under greater cost pressure.


Textile and garment industry tightened environmental protection policies, the industry will continue to accelerate the process to capacity


Textile and clothing industry chain is longer, the pollution mainly concentrated in the dyeing and finishing, water pollution-based, printing and dyeing sub-sectors, tanning more serious pollution. Since October 2017, the textile industry has started to implement new printing and dyeing regulations. The 19 th National Congress of the Party proposed to basically achieve the beautiful China goal by 2020. It is estimated that the government environmental requirements will be further tightened in 2018, the pressure on environmental protection will be gradually increased, and backward production capacity will gradually be stepped up Was eliminated, the industry to speed up the process of capacity.


The impact of environmental toughening on the textile and apparel industries is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, raw material, hydropower and other prices, leading to the cost chain industry to enhance; Second, the government increased pollution of sub-sectors such as printing and dyeing supervision, promote To the production process, resulting in the textile and apparel industries have been adversely affected, but the leading companies are expected to benefit from the concentration of the industry to enhance. In the future, with the introduction of more policies by the central and local governments to further improve environmental standards, the industry will once again enter into the contraction of production capacity and the concentration will be further enhanced. The leading enterprises will enjoy the "dividend of the surplus" and their market share and bargaining power will be enhanced. Short-term Look at dyes, environmental protection and other cost increases after the existence of price increases expected.


The performance of leading enterprises in the industry continued to improve, boosting the growth of the industry as a whole. It is estimated that the revenue will maintain its growth in 2018 but the gross profit margin will decline slightly due to the limited production and environmental costs, and the overall operation will remain stable


In the first three quarters of 2017, revenue from operating sales of textile and apparel and total profit increased by 5.80% and 8.60% respectively over the same period of previous year. Operating pressure was relieved and operating results improved significantly. At the same time, the industry concentration will be more obvious increase, of which the leading textile manufacturing enterprises such as Huafu Fashion Co., Ltd., Luthai Textile Co., Ltd., Blum East (601339, Shares) Co., Ltd., the leading apparel textile industry enterprises Such as Fujian Septwolves Group Co., Ltd., Carolina Life Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Hailan House (600,398, Shares) Co., Ltd. and other performance continued to rise, the industry's overall pullback effect was obvious.


Judging from the gross profit margin and net profit margin, the industry as a whole is relatively stable with slight fluctuations. However, it is estimated that with the increase of environmental protection quotas and cotton and labor prices, the cost will increase and the gross profit margin will slightly decline in 2018 .


As of the end of September 2017, the gearing ratio remained at around 46% from the corporate solvency margin. The current ratio increased slightly by 0.3% as compared with the end of 2016 and the short-term debt repayments slightly strengthened. As the industry overcapacity, the future power of enterprises to expand the scale is not large, is expected in 2018 textile and apparel industry will maintain the current level of capital structure, with the state to further clean up excess capacity, the future scale of corporate financial investment will continue to decrease.


The maturity structure of the existing bonds in the industry is more reasonable. Compared with other industries, the spread in textile and apparel will remain at a relatively high level. Narrowing the spread of the industry's leading debt will continue to narrow the spread of high-level bonds


From the perspective of the amount of bonds issued, the issuance of debt financing instruments from January to November 2017 saw a sharp year-on-year decline. Due to the expected rise in the default risk of the market and the tight funding, the market interest rates continued to rise and the bond prices continued to fall, resulting in a large number of bond issuances Blocked As of the end of November 2017, as of the end of November 2017, the bonds with maturities in the textile and apparel industries maturing within one year and due within one to two years accounted for 30% and 27% respectively. The debt maturity structure was more reasonable and the liquidity The general risk. On the whole, 2018 industrial debt pressure moderate.


In the second half of 2017, interest spreads in the textile and apparel industry narrowed more but remained at a relatively high level in the industry. In 2018, the downstream industry of the textile and apparel industry is expected to continue to pick up and the market share will continue to increase. Leading enterprises tend to concentrate. The bargaining power of leading enterprises in raw materials is relatively high. To some extent, the Company is able to withstand sharp fluctuations in cost price and the compression of individual bond spreads among the leading enterprises in the industry. It will continue to drive the narrowing of spreads in the high-level industries. At the same time, the bargaining power of small enterprises is weaker. As environmental protection becomes more stringent, the production of small-scale manufacturing enterprises will be cut or shut down. The profitability of enterprises will drop sharply and the solvency of debts will be weakened. We should be wary of the possibility of widening spreads among low-level enterprises in the industry.


Anhui Huamao and Zhejiang Wynn have greater liquidity pressure, weaker profitability of main business and increased risk of debt repayment


The products of Anhui Huamao Textile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Anhui Huamao") are both primary products of textile products and have a single structure. The gross profit margin has been at a relatively low level. The profitability of the main business is very poor. The profit mainly depends on the sales Some financial listed companies in circulation, but holding the value of financial assets by the secondary stock market volatility, there is greater uncertainty on the ability to supplement the profits. 400 million yuan of "08 Huamao Bonds" will expire in January 2018, and nearly 1 billion short-term borrowings are about to expire. Anhui Huamao held by the financial assets of the above debts to provide some replenishment However, in the long run, if Anhui Huamao continues to make a profit from operating losses, it will be hard to guarantee its future debts.


Zhejiang Wynn Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wynn Group") is mainly engaged in the processing of primary products of textile products, with low technical barriers, large competitive pressures and relocation of factories. The profitability of main operations is weak. In recent years, profitability is achieved mainly due to the investment income brought by the participation of some financial enterprises. In the meantime, there are risks associated with lending and borrowing of related-party funds as well as the centralized and industry-specific external guarantees. Wynn Group has 1 billion yuan of "16 Wynn debt" in March 2019 into the repurchase period, in October 2019 there are 1 billion yuan of "13 Wynn bonds" need to be honored, the bond expires a great deal of pressure. In 2017, the newly issued private placement bonds amounting to 244 million yuan, "17 Wynn 01" and 256 million yuan "17 Wynn 02" will expire in July 2020 and September 2020, respectively, and there will be some pressure for collective reimbursement.


Shanghai Jialin Jie (002486, Shares) Textile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jialinjie shares") focuses on functional fabric research and development and production. Due to the change of management, lack of brand development and fierce competition in the industry, the profitability of the main business was weak and the operating profit was losing money year by year. May 2017, Jialinjie shares the latest level of A +. Jialinjie shares of 240 million debt of "14 Jiajie debt" will expire in March 2019, and interest-bearing debt larger, there is a certain amount of repayment pressure, need to pay more attention.


In summary, the product added value is low, the structure of a single, in the increasingly competitive market context, the pressure on business operations, coupled with increasing investment in environmental protection, the already tight cash flow caused greater pressure.


Rich bird performance fell sharply, information disclosure is not complete and subject to regulatory penalties, credit risk is high; MTS? Bonwe market competition intensified and in transition, year after year losses need to pay more attention


The wealthy bird limited by shares (hereinafter referred to as "rich bird") wealthy birds by footwear competition intensified, resulting in a decline in performance year by year. In July 2017, Orient Jincheng adjusted its outlook negatively. In November of the same year, Fuguiniao did not disclose its external guarantees in full in the tracking period and did not disclose the semi-annual report for 2017 and other matters, and received the approval from Fujian Securities Regulatory Bureau and Shanghai Securities Exchange Issued a warning letter, the rating company to adjust its level to A. In December 2017, rating agencies downgraded their key players and "Rich 16" to "B". In December 2017, Fuguiniao Discloses Semi-annual Report, with a year-on-year drop of 48.09% in revenue and a loss in operating profit. The wealthy birds with a bond of 1.3 billion yuan "16 rich 01" and 800 million yuan "14 rich bird" will be in August 2018 and April 2018 respectively, put into the repurchase period, there are 9.7 billion short-term debt within the next year Rich bird management and cash flow situation, need to strengthen the concern.


Shanghai Metersbonwe Apparel Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Smith Barney apparel") has accumulated numerous shortcomings due to the extensive expansion. In the downward adjustment of the industry, the adjustment of its strategy lags behind and the income level has experienced a longer-term decline. In response to the increase in the apparel industry Decline in speed and sales downturn, the implementation of "shut down and turn", the product to increase inventory efforts, but the adjustment of direct sales stores and franchisees still take time, the transition effect has not yet fully presented, and its three quarterly disclosure is expected in 2018 Loss, the latest level of AA-. Smith Barney apparel bonds "13 Smith Barney 01" the remaining nearly 260 million yuan will expire in October 2018, interest-bearing debt all concentrated in the past two years, short-term liquidity pressure.

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